Study design:

Retrospective cohort study.

Objective:

Develop a simple scoring system to estimate proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) risk.

Methods:

A total of 417 adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients (80% females, 57.8 years) with 2-year follow-up were included. PJK was defined as a >10° kyphotic angle between the upper-most instrumented vertebra (UIV) and the vertebrae 2 levels above the UIV (UIV+2). Based on a previous literature review, the following point score was attributed to parameters likely to impact PJK development: age >55 years (1 point), fusion to S1/ilium (1 point), UIV in the upper thoracic spine (UIV-UT: 1 point), UIV in the lower thoracic region (UIV-LT: 2 points), flattening of the thoracic kyphosis (TK) relative to the lumbar lordosis (LL; ie, ▵LL – ▵TK) greater than 10° (1 point).

Results:

At 2 years, the overall PJK rate was 43%. The odds ratios for each risk factor were the following: age >55 years (2.52), fusion to S1/ilium (5.17), UIV-UT (6.63), UIV-LT (8.24), and ▵LL – ▵TK >10° (1.59). Analysis by risk factor revealed a significant impact on PJK (no PJK vs PJK): age >55 years (28% vs 51%, P < .001), LIV S1/ilium (16.3% vs 51.4%, P < .001), UIV in lower thoracic spine (12.0% vs 38.7% vs 52.9%, P < .001), and a >10° surgical reduction in TK relative to LL increase (40.0% vs 51.5%, P < .001). The PJK rate by point score was as follows: 1 = 17%, 2 = 29%, 3 = 40%, 4 = 53%, and 5 = 69%.

Conclusion:

A pragmatic scoring system was developed that is tied to the increasing risk of PJK. These findings are helpful for surgical planning and preoperative counseling.